The San Francisco 49ers host the Detroit Lions for the NFC championship on Sunday. The game total is set at 50.5, with the home team favored by 6.5 points.
Last weekend, we had a lot of success targeting the overs for players vs. the Lions’ secondary and we’re expecting more of the same this weekend.
Here are four player props with early-market value.
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We successfully played the over on Kittle’s receiving yards last week and we are going back to it again this week after he racked up 81 yards and a touchdown vs. the Packers. Kittle averaged 63.8 receiving yards per game during the regular season, and he has exceeded this prop in 10 of 18 games played this year. This week he gets a Lions secondary that just allowed 65 yards and a touchdown to Cade Otton last weekend. With the possibility of no Deebo Samuel and Kittle’s impressive yards-after-catch ability, it seems more likely than not that he exceeds this number. Kittle’s 24% air yard share is second only to Brandon Aiyuk for the 49ers.
The Lions have allowed an average of 55 yards per game to tight ends in 19 games this year (including postseason), and Kittle is not just an average tight end.
Brandon Aiyuk over 5.5 receptions (+125)
Brandon Aiyuk over 79.5 receiving yards (-115)
I love a good plus-money prop, and I have a feeling that’s what this is. If Samuel is downgraded to out, this line will move, so I am grabbing the value now in case. We saw Mike Evans burn Detroit for eight catches, 147 yards and a score last week, and the Lions have allowed an average of 189 yards and 13.7 catches per game this year to opposing wideouts. Including postseason, the Lions have allowed 13 different receivers to catch six passes or more, and they have allowed 12 receivers 80-plus receiving yards.
Aiyuk averaged 85 yards per game this season and exceeded this yardage prop in seven of 16 regular-season games. With the Lions focused on stopping Christian McCaffrey, I’ll bet Aiyuk is the beneficiary. Aiyuk exceeded this catch prop in three of the last five regular-season games.
Jahmyr Gibbs over 3.5 receptions (+110)
I like that we are getting even money here for Gibbs’s catch prop. Gibbs has four receptions in each of the last two postseason games, and he averaged exactly 3.5 catches per game during the regular season. He’s gone over this mark in nine of 17 total games played this year. Gibbs has out-snapped David Montgomery 71-52 across the last four games played, and he’s likely to be the beneficiary of some dump-offs from Jared Goff. The Niners allowed an average of 5.5 catches per game to running backs during the regular season.
One more thing: a lot has been made of the difference in how the Lions play in a dome vs. in open-air, so here is another interesting stat: Gibbs averaged 4.5 catches per game in the four games he played in outdoor stadiums this season.
NFC Championship Game Betting Preview: Lions vs. 49ers
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