There are two playoff spots and several seeds still to be claimed in the National League as the final weekend of the 2024 MLB season approaches.
While we don't know the playoff matchups yet, we do know there is no lack of story lines among the NL contenders. Can Shohei Ohtani do enough to push the Los Angeles Dodgers to the promised land and erase their recent October failures? Will the surprising, youthful Milwaukee Brewers be able to bring their regular-season magic into the playoffs? Is this the year that Manny Machado will have his signature moment in a San Diego Padres uniform?
Those questions, and more, will be answered soon enough.
Last year, the Arizona Diamondbacks cruised through the first two rounds and defeated the Philadelphia Phillies in an exciting NLCS to represent the NL in the 2023 World Series. The 2024 Diamondbacks, who shook off a World Series hangover to start the year, are far from a perfect team, but they're not alone. Every MLB team has a vulnerability somewhere on its roster that could cost it this fall.
After we covered the American League last week, let's dive into each NL contender's biggest weakness.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Current playoff spot: NL West leader
Biggest weakness: Starting pitching
There are absolutely no questions about the Dodgers' explosive lineup, which could make up about half of the NL All-Star roster. The bullpen is in good shape, too. But thanks to a flurry of injuries, the Dodgers still have plenty of questions about who is taking the ball in the playoffs.
Two of the Dodgers' starters entering the year—Tyler Glasnow and Gavin Stone—are out for the season. James Paxton now resides in Boston. Clayton Kershaw remains on the injured list with a toe injury and only has seven starts this season. Bobby Miller has been dreadful this year, allowing 36 runs in his last 31 innings pitched.
That leaves Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jack Flaherty, Walker Buehler and Landon Knack to duke it out for postseason starts. It's not a bad group, it's just not as big of a strength in October as the Dodgers imagined back in spring training, especially with Buehler often looking like a shell of his former himself after returning from Tommy John surgery.
Philadelphia Phillies
Current playoff spot: NL East champion
Biggest weakness: Offensive slumps
There's not much to nitpick with the Phillies, who own the most wins (94) in all of baseball.
Philadelphia boasts arguably the best starting rotation of any playoff contender, as Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Christopher Sanchez and Ranger Suarez all have taken care of business this season. The bullpen is nice, too, and the lineup features a couple of the league's biggest sluggers in Bryce Harper (.902 OPS) and Kyle Schwarber (.859).
Can the Phillies sustain this level of play, though? Philadelphia was on pace for a 114-win season back in May before playing sub-.500 ball in July and August. The team has figured it out since then, but offensive slumps have cost them in October the past two years, scoring just three combined runs in Games 6 and 7 of the NLCS last year and three total runs in the final three games of the 2022 World Series.
Milwaukee Brewers
Current playoff spot: NL Central champion
Biggest weakness: Starting pitching
The underdog Brewers defied all odds during the regular season, making manager Craig Counsell look foolish for joining the rival Chicago Cubs by winning the NL Central by double-digit games. They'll be underdogs again in the playoffs. But who says this team can't make a memorable run?
The biggest problem with Milwaukee—which was rarely an issue during the Counsell era—is the starting pitching. Freddy Peralta (3.69 ERA in 31 starts) assuredly will get the ball in Game 1. But who starts Game 2? Or Game 3?
Tobias Myers has been a pleasant surprise this season, but he only has 25 career starts under his belt. Colin Rea hasn't logged a quality start in over a month and owns a 4.89 ERA since the All-Star break. Frankie Montas, who arrived from Cincinnati at the trade deadline, is putting up big strikeout numbers but also just surrendered seven earned runs in 2 2/3 innings to Arizona.
Current playoff spot: Top NL wild card
Biggest weakness: Closer
The Padres, who clinched their third playoff berth in the last five seasons on Tuesday night, are still in the hunt for the NL West title. But if they are going to make a World Series run, they need Robert Suarez to rediscover his early-season form.
Suarez was, without a doubt, one of the best closers in baseball in the first few months of the season. At the All-Star break, Suarez had 22 saves and a 1.67 ERA in 38 appearances. Since then, he has fallen off with a 4.44 ERA and 13 saves in his last 26 games, including a 6.55 ERA in September.
That's not what you want from your closer in the postseason. Manager Mike Shildt could be calling upon Tanner Scott or Jason Adam to take over the ninth-inning duties before long.
New York Mets
Current playoff spot: Second NL wild card
Biggest weakness: Postponed games
From a horrendous start, a viral first pitch by McDonald's mascot Grimace and a scorching-hot month of September, the Mets have endured one of the oddest seasons in recent memory. They find themselves in the driver's seat in the final week of the regular season but face more wacky circumstances, as two games with playoff implications against the Atlanta Braves this week were postponed to a Monday doubleheader.
The problem? The MLB playoffs are set to begin Tuesday. If Arizona is still in the mix for a playoff spot after the weekend, the Mets and Braves will have to play the doubleheader at Truist Park, which would put them behind the eight ball for the wild-card series that will begin the following day in either Milwaukee, Los Angeles or San Diego.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Current playoff spot: Third NL wild card
Biggest weakness: Bullpen
A.J. Puk has been unbelievable since arriving from Miami at the trade deadline, logging a 0.36 ERA and 14.8 strikeouts per nine innings in 27 appearances for the reigning NL champions. Behind Puk, however, is a heap of trouble in the Diamondbacks' bullpen.
Since Aug. 1, the Diamondbacks' bullpen has the seventh-worse ERA (4.84) in baseball and the worst among playoff contenders. Over the last month, Kevin Ginkel (7.71 ERA), Joe Mantiply (7.27 ERA), Ryan Thompson (7.36 ERA) and Justin Martinez (1.58 WHIP) haven't been reliable as the top high-leverage options available for manager Torey Lovullo. Not to mention former closer Paul Sewald was demoted from the ninth-inning role in August and hasn't been the same since.
Atlanta Braves
Current playoff spot: 0.5 GB of third NL wild card
Biggest weakness: Health
It just doesn’t seem like 2024 will be Atlanta's year. It's a testament to the Braves’ depth that they’re even in the postseason mix in the final week of the regular season.
Opening Day starter Spencer Strider going down for the year in April with an elbow injury was just the start of the Braves’ injury woes. Reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. tore his ACL in May, slugging third baseman Austin Riley is out for the rest of the year with a broken hand and setup man A.J. Minter underwent hip surgery last month. Key offensive contributors in Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris II both missed over a month nursing injuries during the season, too.
Are the Braves healthy enough for a deep playoff run?
